MeritValue

BIOGEN INC.

BIIBdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

BIOGEN INC. earns about 11% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count. The estimate methods put fair value between $108.61 and $174.28 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$11B1$10.2B2$9.84B3$9.68B3$9.89B3
Net income$1.56B4$3.05B5$1.16B6$1.63B6$1.29B6
Operating cash flow$3.64B7$1.38B8$1.55B9$2.88B9$2.2B9
Capital expenditure$258.1M10$240.3M11$277M12$153.7M12$153.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$3.38B7$1.14B8$1.27B9$2.72B9$2.05B9
Total debt$7.27B13$6.28B13$7.09B14$8.04B15$6.29B16
Cash & equivalents$2.26B17$3.42B18$1.05B18$2.38B18$3.01B18
Diluted shares149.6M146.0M145.6M145.9M147.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,241.11
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$87.89
Free cash flow it threw off
$139.42
Debt you’d be carrying
$427.38

10 shares is a claim on $1,241.11 of net worth that earned you $87.89 and generated $139.42 of cash last year, against $427.38 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 19%FY23 7%FY24 8%FY25 7%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 14% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $108.61 and $174.28 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$159.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.05B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$174.28
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.05B
Earnings Power Value
$108.61
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.56B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$156.83
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $174.28
The three cases
Bear0.0%$174.28
Base0.0%$174.28
Bull5.0%$221.77

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000875045-24-000009 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000875045-25-000009 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000875045-26-000013 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000875045-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000875045-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000875045-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000875045-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000875045-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000875045-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000875045-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000875045-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000875045-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000875045-23-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000875045-24-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000875045-25-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000875045-26-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000875045-25-000009 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000875045-26-000013 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)