MeritValue

BGSF, INC.

BGSFdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

BGSF, INC. earns about -6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $55.65 and $100.36 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2023FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$239M1$298.4M2$125.1M3$104.4M3$93.3M3
Net income$14.1M4$25.4M5−$10.2M6−$3.34M6−$11.4M6
Operating cash flow$6.66M7−$7.12M8$20.4M9$24.4M9$142,0009
Capital expenditure$3.2M10$5.68M11$2.15M12$1.22M12$138,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$3.46M7−$12.8M8$18.2M9$23.2M9$4,0009
Total debt$26.9M13$40M14$34M15$36.3M16$016
Cash & equivalents$112,00017$018$018$32,00018$19M18
Diluted shares10.4M10.5M10.8M10.9M11.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$43.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$10.37
Free cash flow it threw off
$0
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $43.63 of net worth that earned you −$10.37 and generated $0 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-6% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY23 5%FY23 -2%FY24 -7%FY25 -36%

It earned about -6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $55.65 and $100.36 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$100.36
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$18.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$55.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$18.2M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $55.65
The three cases
Bear0.0%$25.36
Base20.0%$55.65
Bull20.0%$55.65

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001474903-24-000026 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001474903-25-000016 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001474903-26-000030 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001474903-24-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001474903-25-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001474903-26-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001474903-24-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001474903-25-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001474903-26-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001474903-24-000026 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001474903-25-000016 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001474903-26-000030 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001474903-23-000031 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001474903-24-000026 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001474903-25-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001474903-26-000030 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001474903-25-000016 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001474903-26-000030 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)