MeritValue

BGM Group Ltd.

BGMdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

BGM Group Ltd. earns about -3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 232% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.1 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$57.1M1$64.9M2$46.5M3$25.1M3$37.9M3
Net income$3.15M4$1.08M5−$7.78M6−$1.44M6−$19.9M6
Operating cash flow$345,0347$12.7M8$312,2099$544,2389−$2.37M9
Capital expenditure$1.49M10$2.03M11$179,75912$240,13312$1.57M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$1.15M7$10.6M8$132,4509$304,1059−$3.94M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$10.5M13$14.3M14$7.48M15$9.82M16$9.82M16
Diluted shares34.1M7.2M7.2M7.2M113.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$34.51
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.76
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.35
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $34.51 of net worth that earned you −$1.76 and generated −$0.35 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-3% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 4%FY23 -17%FY24 -5%FY25 -4%

It earned about -3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+232% shares · 5y

Share count is up 232% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$132,450
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$132,450
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.1
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.1
Base0.0%$0.1
Bull5.0%$0.11

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001410578-24-000053 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001410578-25-000636 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001104659-26-085247 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001410578-24-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001410578-25-000636 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001104659-26-085247 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001410578-24-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001410578-25-000636 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001104659-26-085247 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001410578-24-000053 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001410578-25-000636 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001104659-26-085247 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001410578-23-000745 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001410578-24-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001410578-25-000636 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001104659-26-085247 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)