MeritValue

Bunge Global SA

BGdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

Bunge Global SA earns about 14% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $99.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$16.8B1$21.1B2$17.8B3$15.6B3$16.9B3
Net income$2.08B4$1.61B5$2.24B6$1.14B6$816M6
Operating cash flow−$2.89B7−$5.55B8$3.31B9$1.9B9$844M9
Capital expenditure$399M10$555M11$1.12B12$1.38B12$1.72B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$3.29B7−$6.1B8$2.19B9$524M9−$879M9
Total debt—$8.76B13$9.77B14$13.1B15$29.4B15
Cash & equivalents$902M16$1.1B17$2.6B18$3.31B18$1.14B18
Diluted shares152.4M153.1M150.8M142.2M166.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$955.38
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$49.02
Free cash flow it threw off
−$52.8
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,768.46

10 shares is a claim on $955.38 of net worth that earned you $49.02 and generated −$52.8 of cash last year, against $1,768.46 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 34%FY22 12%FY23 15%FY24 8%FY25 3%

It earned an average 14% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 236% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$524M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$524M
Earnings Power Value
$99.3
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.61B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$102.74
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001996862-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001996862-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009842 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001996862-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001996862-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009842 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001996862-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001996862-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009842 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001996862-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001996862-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009842 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001996862-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001996862-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009842 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001996862-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001996862-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009842 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)