MeritValue

BELDEN INC.

BDCdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

BELDEN INC. earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 11% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $60.65 and $102.13 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.3B1$2.61B2$2.51B3$2.46B3$2.72B3
Net income$63.9M4$254.7M5$242.8M6$198.4M6$237.5M6
Operating cash flow$272.1M7$281.3M8$319.6M9$352.1M9$354.9M9
Capital expenditure$91M10$105.1M11$116.7M12$129.1M12$136.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$181.1M7$176.2M8$202.9M9$223M9$218.7M9
Total debt$1.46B13$1.16B14$1.2B15$1.13B16$1.29B16
Cash & equivalents$641.6M17$687.7M18$597M19$370.3M19$389.9M19
Diluted shares45.4M44.5M42.9M41.3M40.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$314.46
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$59.07
Free cash flow it threw off
$54.39
Debt you’d be carrying
$319.74

10 shares is a claim on $314.46 of net worth that earned you $59.07 and generated $54.39 of cash last year, against $319.74 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 14%FY23 12%FY24 10%FY25 11%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−11% shares · 5y

Share count is down 11% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 12% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $60.65 and $102.13 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$102.13
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth7.5%
  • fcfBase$218.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$83.38
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth7.5%
  • fcfBase$218.7M
Earnings Power Value
$60.65
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$237.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$65.7
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years7.5%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $83.38
The three cases
Bear0.0%$54.4
Base7.5%$83.38
Bull12.5%$107.54

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 7.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000913142-24-000007 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000913142-25-000005 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000913142-26-000009 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000913142-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000913142-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000913142-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000913142-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000913142-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000913142-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000913142-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000913142-25-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000913142-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000913142-23-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000913142-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000913142-25-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000913142-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000913142-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000913142-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000913142-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)