MeritValue

California BanCorp \ CA

BCALdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

California BanCorp \ CA earns about 39% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 80% over 4 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.62 and $101.11 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$93.6M1$123.5M2$179.8M3$226M3
Net income$16.1M4$25.9M5$5.43M6$63.1M6
Operating cash flow$13.4M7$33.1M8$50.3M9$57.3M9
Capital expenditure$1.08M10$302,00011$552,00012$346,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$12.3M7$32.8M8$49.7M9$56.9M9
Total debt$67.8M13$102.9M14$69.7M15$33.8M15
Cash & equivalents$86.8M16$86.8M17$388.2M18$399.9M18
Diluted shares18.2M18.7M24.6M32.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$176.08
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$19.26
Free cash flow it threw off
$17.39
Debt you’d be carrying
$10.33

10 shares is a claim on $176.08 of net worth that earned you $19.26 and generated $17.39 of cash last year, against $10.33 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
39% avg · 4y
FY22 8%FY23 15%FY24 45%FY25 88%

It earned about 39% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+80% shares · 4y

Share count is up 80% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 50% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.62 and $101.11 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$101.11
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$49.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$60.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$49.7M
Earnings Power Value
$6.62
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$21M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$27.79
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.97%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $60.39
The three cases
Bear0.0%$32.75
Base20.0%$60.39
Bull20.0%$60.39

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011472 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015957 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001795815-26-000005 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011472 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015957 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001795815-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011472 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015957 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001795815-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011472 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015957 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001795815-26-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011472 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015957 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001795815-26-000005 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011472 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015957 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001795815-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)