MeritValue

BLACKBERRY Ltd

BBdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

BLACKBERRY Ltd earns about -3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.52 and $0.56 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$718M1$526.3M2$759.1M3$534.9M3$549.1M3
Net income$12M4−$734.4M5−$130.2M6−$79M6$53.2M6
Operating cash flow−$28M7−$262.2M8−$3.5M9$16.5M9$50.3M9
Capital expenditure$8M10$7.3M11$7.1M12$3.1M12$3.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$36M7−$269.5M8−$10.6M9$13.4M9$46.5M9
Total debt—$013$194.1M14$195.3M15$196.5M15
Cash & equivalents$378M16$295.7M17$175.1M18$266.7M18$274.7M18
Diluted shares631.4M639.5M592.5M591.5M597.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$12.48
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.89
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.78
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.29

10 shares is a claim on $12.48 of net worth that earned you $0.89 and generated $0.78 of cash last year, against $3.29 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-3% avg · 5y
FY22 1%FY23 -28%FY24 2%FY25 1%FY26 9%

It earned about -3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.52 and $0.56 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$13.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.52
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$13.4M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$1.6
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.52
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.45
Base5.0%$0.52
Bull10.0%$0.61

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-02-28 · accession 0001070235-24-000057 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-28 · accession 0001070235-25-000068 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0001070235-26-000039 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-02-28 · accession 0001070235-24-000057 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-28 · accession 0001070235-25-000068 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0001070235-26-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-02-28 · accession 0001070235-24-000057 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-28 · accession 0001070235-25-000068 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0001070235-26-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-02-28 · accession 0001070235-24-000057 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-28 · accession 0001070235-25-000068 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0001070235-26-000039 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-28 · accession 0001070235-24-000057 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0001070235-25-000068 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-28 · accession 0001070235-26-000039 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-02-28 · accession 0001070235-24-000057 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-28 · accession 0001070235-25-000068 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0001070235-26-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)