MeritValue

CBL International Ltd

BANLdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

CBL International Ltd earns about 20% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 29% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$326.5M1$462.9M2$435.9M3$592.5M3$538.5M3
Net income$3.57M4$3.69M5$1.13M6−$3.87M6−$2.99M6
Operating cash flow−$2.51M7$3.5M8−$10M9−$1.94M9$4M9
Capital expenditure$19,15310$373,11111$773,86312$144,44612$2,64112
Free cash flow (derived)−$2.53M7$3.13M8−$10.8M9−$2.09M9$3.99M9
Total debt———$1.36M13$1.89M13
Cash & equivalents$3.04M14$5.03M15$7.4M16$8.02M16$9.33M16
Diluted shares21.3M21.3M25.0M27.5M27.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$7.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.09
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.45
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.69

10 shares is a claim on $7.23 of net worth that earned you −$1.09 and generated $1.45 of cash last year, against $0.69 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY21 66%FY22 55%FY23 7%FY24 -16%FY25 -14%

It earned an average 20% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+29% shares · 5y

Share count is up 29% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 39% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$0.43
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.13M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-013718 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-015142 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-017832 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-013718 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-015142 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-017832 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-013718 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-015142 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-017832 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-013718 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-015142 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-017832 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-017832 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-013718 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-015142 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-017832 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)