MeritValue

BANC OF CALIFORNIA, INC.

BANCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

BANC OF CALIFORNIA, INC. earns about 1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 110% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.23 and $14.54 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$24.8M1$30.7M2$33.8M3$37.2M3$38.8M3
Net income$607M4$423.6M5−$1.9B6$126.9M6$229M6
Operating cash flow$503M7$702M8$135.8M9$77.4M9$255.6M9
Capital expenditure$17.3M10$20.1M11$15.2M12$13M12$20.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$485.7M7$681.8M8$120.5M9$64.3M9$234.8M9
Total debt—$1.76B13$2.91B14$1.39B15$2.06B15
Cash & equivalents$228.1M16$228.9M16$5.38B17$2.5B17$2.31B17
Diluted shares76.9M77.3M85.4M168.7M161.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$218.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$14.16
Free cash flow it threw off
$14.52
Debt you’d be carrying
$127.61

10 shares is a claim on $218.97 of net worth that earned you $14.16 and generated $14.52 of cash last year, against $127.61 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 11%FY23 -84%FY24 33%FY25 29%

It earned about 1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+110% shares · 5y

Share count is up 110% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 17% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.23 and $14.54 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$11.23
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$120.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$120.5M
Earnings Power Value
$14.54
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$229M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$24.93
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.02
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.02
Base0.0%$12.02
Bull5.0%$14.56

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007933 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009438 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012946 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007933 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009438 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012946 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007933 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009438 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012946 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007933 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009438 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012946 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007933 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009438 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012946 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001169770-23-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012946 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)