MeritValue

AMERICAN STATES WATER CO

AWRdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

AMERICAN STATES WATER CO earns about 9% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $31.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$113.4M1$110.9M2$120.4M3$126.4M3$136.7M3
Net income$94.3M4$78.4M5$124.9M6$119.3M6$130.4M6
Operating cash flow$115.6M7$117.8M8$67.7M9$198.7M9$229.7M9
Capital expenditure$144.5M10$166.2M11$188.5M12$232M12$236.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$28.9M7−$48.4M8−$120.9M9−$33.2M9−$7.09M9
Total debt$412.2M13$446.5M14$575.6M15$640.4M16$782.7M16
Cash & equivalents$4.96M17$6M18$14.1M19$26.7M20$18.8M20
Diluted shares37.0M37.0M37.1M37.6M38.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$270.36
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$33.73
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.83
Debt you’d be carrying
$202.39

10 shares is a claim on $270.36 of net worth that earned you $33.73 and generated −$1.83 of cash last year, against $202.39 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 9%FY23 12%FY24 8%FY25 7%

It earned an average 9% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 90% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$31.96
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$119.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$45.04
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005922 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006389 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009114 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005922 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006389 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009114 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005922 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006389 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009114 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005922 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006389 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009114 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005869 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005922 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006389 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009114 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005869 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005922 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006389 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009114 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)