MeritValue

Avery Dennison Corp

AVYdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Avery Dennison Corp earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $86.99 and $92.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$8.41B1$9.04B2$8.36B3$8.76B3$8.86B3
Net income$740.1M4$757.1M5$503M6$704.9M6$688M6
Operating cash flow$1.05B7$961M8$826M9$938.8M9$881.4M9
Capital expenditure$255M10$278.1M11$265.3M12$208.8M12$169M12
Free cash flow (derived)$791.8M7$682.9M8$560.7M9$730M9$712.4M9
Total debt$3.09B13$3.09B14$3.24B15$3.14B16$3.72B16
Cash & equivalents$162.7M17$167.2M18$215M19$329.1M20$202.8M20
Diluted shares83.8M82.2M81.1M80.7M78.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$286.35
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$87.87
Free cash flow it threw off
$90.98
Debt you’d be carrying
$475.34

10 shares is a claim on $286.35 of net worth that earned you $87.87 and generated $90.98 of cash last year, against $475.34 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY22 16%FY22 17%FY23 11%FY24 14%FY25 12%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 20% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $86.99 and $92.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$86.99
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth1.4%
  • fcfBase$712.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$91.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth1.4%
  • fcfBase$712.4M
Earnings Power Value
$92.43
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$704.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$75.95
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years1.4%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $91.56
The three cases
Bear0.0%$83.33
Base1.4%$91.56
Bull6.4%$124.21

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 1.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000008818-24-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000008818-25-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000008818-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000008818-24-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000008818-25-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000008818-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000008818-24-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000008818-25-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000008818-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000008818-24-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000008818-25-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000008818-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000008818-23-000002 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000008818-24-000003 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000008818-25-000003 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0000008818-26-000015 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000008818-23-000002 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000008818-24-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000008818-25-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0000008818-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)