MeritValue

AVIENT CORP

AVNTdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

AVIENT CORP earns about 1% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $19.05 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.32B1$3.4B2$3.14B3$3.24B3$3.26B3
Net income$230.8M4$703.1M5$75.7M6$169.5M6$81.9M6
Operating cash flow$233.8M7$398.4M8$201.6M9$256.8M9$301.6M9
Capital expenditure$100.6M10$105.5M11$119.4M12$121.9M12$106.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$133.2M7$292.9M8$82.2M9$134.9M9$195M9
Total debt$3.72B13$4.36B14$4.16B15$4.13B16$3.85B16
Cash & equivalents$601.2M17$641.1M18$545.8M18$544.5M18$510.5M18
Diluted shares92.1M92.2M91.8M92.0M91.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$258.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.92
Free cash flow it threw off
$21.24
Debt you’d be carrying
$418.98

10 shares is a claim on $258.63 of net worth that earned you $8.92 and generated $21.24 of cash last year, against $418.98 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 -1%FY23 -0%FY24 3%FY25 1%

It earned an average 1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$134.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$134.9M
Earnings Power Value
$19.05
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$169.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$22.76
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001122976-24-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001122976-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001122976-26-000039 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001122976-24-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001122976-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001122976-26-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001122976-24-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001122976-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001122976-26-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001122976-24-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001122976-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001122976-26-000039 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001122976-23-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001122976-24-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001122976-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001122976-26-000039 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001122976-25-000008 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001122976-26-000039 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)