MeritValue

A10 Networks, Inc.

ATENdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

A10 Networks, Inc. earns about 30% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.58 and $18.78 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$250M1$280.3M2$251.7M3$261.7M3$290.6M3
Net income$94.9M4$46.9M5$40M6$50.1M6$42.1M6
Operating cash flow$50.1M7$66.1M8$44.5M9$90.5M9$84.9M9
Capital expenditure$5.17M10$10.8M11$10.9M12$12.3M12$20.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$44.9M7$55.3M8$33.6M9$78.2M9$64.8M9
Total debt———$013$218.8M13
Cash & equivalents$78.9M14$68M15$97.2M15$95.1M15$71.1M15
Diluted shares80.0M77.8M75.5M75.3M73.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$28.75
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.73
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.8
Debt you’d be carrying
$29.73

10 shares is a claim on $28.75 of net worth that earned you $5.73 and generated $8.8 of cash last year, against $29.73 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
30% avg · 5y
FY21 24%FY22 41%FY23 36%FY24 37%FY25 13%

It earned about 30% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.58 and $18.78 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$18.78
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth7.8%
  • fcfBase$64.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$15.45
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth7.8%
  • fcfBase$64.8M
Earnings Power Value
$6.58
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$46.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$6.16
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years7.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.97%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $15.45
The three cases
Bear0.0%$10.49
Base7.8%$15.45
Bull12.8%$19.44

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 7.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001580808-24-000049 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001580808-25-000043 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001580808-26-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001580808-24-000049 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001580808-25-000043 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001580808-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001580808-24-000049 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001580808-25-000043 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001580808-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001580808-24-000049 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001580808-25-000043 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001580808-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001580808-26-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001580808-22-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001580808-26-000014 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)