MeritValue

Amer Sports, Inc.

ASdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'depreciationAmortization'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

Amer Sports, Inc. earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 45% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.86 and $20.26 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.07B1$3.57B2$4.4B3$5.18B3$6.57B3
Net income−$126.3M4−$252.7M5−$208.6M6$72.6M6$427.4M6
Operating cash flow$268M7−$91.7M8$199M9$424.7M9$729.8M9
Capital expenditure$60.7M10$77.7M11$123.6M12$229.1M12$216.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$207.3M7−$169.4M8$75.4M9$195.6M9$513.3M9
Total debt—$6.24B13$6.32B14$927.3M15$935.1M15
Cash & equivalents$567.6M16$402M17$483.4M17$345.4M17$652.3M17
Diluted shares383.3M384.3M505.2M553.6M557.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$104.04
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$7.66
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.2
Debt you’d be carrying
$16.77

10 shares is a claim on $104.04 of net worth that earned you $7.66 and generated $9.2 of cash last year, against $16.77 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -1%FY23 1%FY24 3%FY25 8%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+45% shares · 5y

Share count is up 45% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 85% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.86 and $20.26 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$20.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$195.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$10.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$195.6M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$13.34
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.97%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $10.86
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.47
Base20.0%$10.86
Bull20.0%$10.86

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-035553 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011314 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001988894-26-000004 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-035553 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011314 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001988894-26-000004 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-035553 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011314 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001988894-26-000004 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-035553 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011314 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001988894-26-000004 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-035553 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011314 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001988894-26-000004 (Borrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011314 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001988894-26-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalents)