Accelerant Holdings

ARXdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Accelerant Holdings earns about -93% on equity, but has diluted owners by 15% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	$344M¹	$602.6M¹	$912.9M¹
Net income	−$64.1M²	$22.9M²	−$1.35B²
Operating cash flow	$290M³	$785.7M³	$445.1M³
Capital expenditure	—	—	—
Free cash flow (derived)	—	—	—
Total debt	—	$121.4M⁴	$121.3M⁴
Cash & equivalents	$775.4M⁵	$1.23B⁵	$1.72B⁵
Diluted shares	165.6M	199.7M	190.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$36.67

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$70.7

Free cash flow it threw off

—

Debt you’d be carrying

$6.38

10 shares is a claim on $36.67 of net worth that earned you −$70.7 last year, against $6.38 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on equity

-93% avg · 3y

FY23 —FY24 8%FY25 -193%

It earned an average -93% on equity over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+15% shares · 3y

Share count is up 15% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001997350-26-000003 (Revenues)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001997350-26-000003 (ProfitLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001997350-26-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001997350-26-000003 (LongTermDebt)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001997350-26-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)