Armour Residential REIT, Inc.

ARRdata completeness 63%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Armour Residential REIT, Inc. earns about -2% on equity, but has diluted owners by 487% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	—	—	—	—	—
Net income	$15.4M¹	−$229.9M²	−$67.9M³	−$14.4M³	$322.7M³
Operating cash flow	$11.7M⁴	$124.1M⁵	$132.8M⁶	$261.5M⁶	$124.2M⁶
Capital expenditure	—	—	—	—	—
Free cash flow (derived)	—	—	—	—	—
Total debt	—	—	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$356.2M⁷	$87.3M⁸	$221.9M⁹	$68M¹⁰	$63.3M¹⁰
Diluted shares	16.1M	23.6M	43.1M	52.2M	94.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$239.85

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

$34.23

Free cash flow it threw off

—

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $239.85 of net worth that earned you $34.23 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on equity

-2% avg · 5y

FY21 1%FY22 -21%FY23 -5%FY24 -1%FY25 14%

It earned an average -2% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+487% shares · 5y

Share count is up 487% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

$42.2

assumptions (1)

grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001428205-24-000061 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001428205-25-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001428205-26-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001428205-24-000061 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001428205-25-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001428205-26-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001428205-25-000027 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001428205-24-000061 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001428205-25-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001428205-26-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)