MeritValue

Arqit Quantum Inc.

ARQQdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Arqit Quantum Inc. earns about -45% on invested capital, and has bought back 81% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue—$48,0001$7.21M2$640,0002$293,0002
Net income−$515,7053−$271.3M3$65.1M4−$70.4M4−$54.6M4
Operating cash flow−$1.34M5−$24M6−$26.7M7−$32.8M7−$34.1M7
Capital expenditure$26,0008$223,0009$2.38M10$712,00010$6,00010
Free cash flow (derived)−$1.36M5−$24.3M6−$29.1M7−$33.5M7−$34.1M7
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$195,00011$87M12$49M12$44.5M12$18.7M12
Diluted shares59.3M68.3M4.8M163.6M11.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$10.24
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$47.28
Free cash flow it threw off
−$29.56
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $10.24 of net worth that earned you −$47.28 and generated −$29.56 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-45% avg · 5y
FY20 -122%FY21 —FY22 143%FY23 -157%FY24 —

It earned an average -45% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−81% shares · 5y

Share count is down 81% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001558370-23-019267 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001558370-24-016028 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2020-09-30 · accession 0001104659-21-150276 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001558370-24-016028 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2020-09-30 · accession 0001558370-22-018615 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001558370-23-019267 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001558370-24-016028 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2020-09-30 · accession 0001558370-22-018615 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001558370-23-019267 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001558370-24-016028 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2020-09-30 · accession 0001558370-23-019267 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001558370-24-016028 (CashAndCashEquivalents)