MeritValue

Arbe Robotics Ltd.

ARBEdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Arbe Robotics Ltd. earns about 263% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 406% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.25M1$3.52M2$1.47M3$768,0003$1.03M3
Net income−$58.1M4−$40.5M5−$43.5M6−$49.3M6−$46.4M6
Operating cash flow−$26.4M7−$40.4M8−$33.5M9−$32.5M9−$38.1M9
Capital expenditure$784,00010$918,00011$249,00012$622,00012$303,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$27.2M7−$41.3M8−$33.8M9−$33.1M9−$38.4M9
Total debt$4.92M13————
Cash & equivalents$100.8M14$54.2M15$28.6M16$13.5M17$4.03M17
Diluted shares22.0M63.6M72.1M80.9M111.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$3.55
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.17
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.45
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $3.55 of net worth that earned you −$4.17 and generated −$3.45 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
263% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 254%FY24 433%FY25 103%

It earned an average 263% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+406% shares · 5y

Share count is up 406% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-026942 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-004037 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-035653 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-026942 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-004037 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-035653 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-026942 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-004037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-035653 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-026942 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-004037 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-035653 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-040504 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-040504 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-026942 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-004037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-035653 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)