Arrive AI Inc.

ARAIdata completeness 88%2 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Arrive AI Inc. earns about -2727% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 11% over 2 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	—	$113,250¹
Net income	−$4.54M²	−$12.8M²
Operating cash flow	−$2.29M³	−$8.25M³
Capital expenditure	$38,155⁴	$495,185⁴
Free cash flow (derived)	−$2.33M³	−$8.75M³
Total debt	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$129,318⁵	$2.1M⁵
Diluted shares	29.0M	32.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$0.77

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$3.98

Free cash flow it threw off

−$2.72

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $0.77 of net worth that earned you −$3.98 and generated −$2.72 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on invested capital

-2727% avg · 2y

FY24 —FY25 -2727%

It earned an average -2727% on invested capital over 2 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+11% shares · 2y

Share count is up 11% over 2 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

only 2 years of net income (need ≥3)

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-016808 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-016808 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-016808 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-016808 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-016808 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)