MeritValue

Aprea Therapeutics, Inc.

APREdata completeness 63%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Aprea Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -153% on equity, but has diluted owners by 514% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$37.1M1−$112.7M1−$14.3M2−$13M3−$12.6M3
Operating cash flow−$37.7M4−$25M4−$12.2M5−$13.6M6−$12.9M6
Capital expenditure——$93,0937$15,4788—
Free cash flow (derived)——−$12.3M5−$13.6M6—
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$53.1M9$28.8M9$21.6M10$22.8M11$14.6M11
Diluted shares1.1M1.7M3.6M5.5M6.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$19.03
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$19.27
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $19.03 of net worth that earned you −$19.27 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-153% avg · 5y
FY21 -75%FY22 -439%FY23 -84%FY24 -67%FY25 -101%

It earned an average -153% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+514% shares · 5y

Share count is up 514% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003886 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003588 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028068 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003886 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003588 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028068 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003588 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028068 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003886 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003588 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028068 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)