MeritValue

APi Group Corp

APGdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

APi Group Corp earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 102% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.8 and $65.24 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.94B1$6.56B2$6.93B3$7.02B3$7.91B3
Net income$47M4$73M5$153M6$250M6$302M6
Operating cash flow$182M7$270M8$514M9$620M9$759M9
Capital expenditure$55M10$79M11$86M12$84M12$96M12
Free cash flow (derived)$127M7$191M8$428M9$536M9$663M9
Total debt$1.77B13$5.78B14$4.66B15$5.51B16$5.52B16
Cash & equivalents$1.19B17$605M18$479M19$499M20$912M20
Diluted shares206.0M266.1M352.7M401.5M415.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$81.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$7.26
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.95
Debt you’d be carrying
$132.86

10 shares is a claim on $81.98 of net worth that earned you $7.26 and generated $15.95 of cash last year, against $132.86 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 2%FY23 4%FY24 3%FY25 4%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+102% shares · 5y

Share count is up 102% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 213% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.8 and $65.24 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$65.24
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$536M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$30.68
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$536M
Earnings Power Value
$3.8
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$153M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.97%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $30.68
The three cases
Bear0.0%$7.22
Base20.0%$30.68
Bull20.0%$30.68

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007573 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008189 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011620 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007573 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008189 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011620 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007573 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008189 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011620 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007573 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008189 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011620 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005456 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007573 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008189 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011620 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005456 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007573 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008189 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011620 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)