MeritValue

AMERICAN PUBLIC EDUCATION INC

APEIdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

AMERICAN PUBLIC EDUCATION INC earns about -4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.87 and $98.59 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$418.8M1$606.3M2$600.5M3$624.6M3$648.9M3
Net income$17.8M4−$115M5−$47.3M6$16.1M6$31.6M6
Operating cash flow$16.3M7$29.2M8$45.5M9$48.9M9$62M9
Capital expenditure$11.8M10$16.4M11$13.9M12$21.1M12$15.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$4.44M7$12.8M8$31.6M9$27.8M9$46.1M9
Total debt$321M13$186.3M14$189.4M15$186.8M16$189.3M16
Cash & equivalents$149.6M17$102.5M18$116.7M19$131.9M20$174.1M20
Diluted shares18.3M18.9M18.2M18.1M18.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$157.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.91
Free cash flow it threw off
$24.71
Debt you’d be carrying
$101.46

10 shares is a claim on $157.98 of net worth that earned you $16.91 and generated $24.71 of cash last year, against $101.46 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-4% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 -27%FY23 -11%FY24 6%FY25 10%

It earned about -4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 41% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.87 and $98.59 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$98.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$31.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$53.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$31.6M
Earnings Power Value
$8.87
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$16.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$22.31
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $53.64
The three cases
Bear0.0%$23.07
Base20.0%$53.64
Bull20.0%$53.64

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001201792-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001201792-25-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001201792-26-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001201792-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001201792-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001201792-26-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001201792-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001201792-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001201792-26-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001201792-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001201792-25-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001201792-26-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001201792-23-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001201792-24-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001201792-25-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001201792-26-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001201792-25-000004 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001201792-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001201792-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001201792-26-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)