MeritValue

SMITH A O CORP

AOSdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.54B1$3.75B1$3.85B2$3.82B2$3.83B2
Net income$487.1M3$235.7M3$556.6M4$533.6M4$546.2M4
Operating cash flow$641.1M5$391.4M5$670.3M6$581.8M6$616.8M6
Capital expenditure$75.1M7$70.3M7$72.6M8$108M8$70.8M8
Free cash flow (derived)$566M5$321.1M5$597.7M6$473.8M6$546M6
Total debt$393.4M9$689M10$254.6M10$386.4M11$310M11
Cash & equivalents$443.3M12$391.2M13$339.9M13$239.6M14$174.5M14
Diluted shares161.3M155.8M151.0M147.1M141.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
You’d own
0.0000070%
of the whole company
Your share of last year’s profit
$38.49
Your share of its debt
$21.84
Your share of free cash flow
$38.47
iii. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$62.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.5%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth2.6%
  • fcfBase$546M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$62.19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.5%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth2.6%
  • fcfBase$546M
Earnings Power Value
$39.62
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.5%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$533.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$33.68
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

iv. The price question — last, on purpose
What does today’s price assume?
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years2.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.78%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $62.19

Default growth 2.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000091142-24-000041 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000091142-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000091142-24-000041 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000091142-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000091142-24-000041 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000091142-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000091142-24-000041 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000091142-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000091142-23-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000091142-24-000041 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000091142-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000091142-23-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000091142-24-000041 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000091142-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)