MeritValue

Sphere 3D Corp.

ANYdata completeness 88%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Sphere 3D Corp. earns about -153% on equity, and has bought back 91% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.72M1$6.08M2$21.9M3$16.6M4$11.2M4
Net income−$17.3M5−$192.8M5−$23.3M6−$9.47M7−$21.5M7
Operating cash flow−$28.5M8−$30.8M9−$6.58M10−$4.58M11−$16.1M11
Capital expenditure$102.2M12$17.6M13$1.56M14$8.94M15$7.5M15
Free cash flow (derived)−$130.8M8−$48.4M9−$8.14M10−$13.5M11−$23.6M11
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$54.4M16$1.34M17$586,00018$5.43M19$3.71M19
Diluted shares30.9M9.5M12.1M2.0M2.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$79.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$73.7
Free cash flow it threw off
−$81.03
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $79.94 of net worth that earned you −$73.7 and generated −$81.03 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-153% avg · 5y
FY21 -8%FY22 -553%FY23 -88%FY24 -24%FY25 -92%

It earned an average -153% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−91% shares · 5y

Share count is down 91% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001591956-23-000004 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001591956-24-000004 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015457 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001591956-26-000004 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001591956-23-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015457 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001591956-26-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001591956-23-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001591956-24-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015457 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001591956-26-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001591956-23-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001591956-24-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015457 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001591956-26-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001591956-23-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001591956-24-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015457 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001591956-26-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)