MeritValue

ANI PHARMACEUTICALS INC

ANIPdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

ANI PHARMACEUTICALS INC earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 69% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $167.98 and $308.2 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$216.1M1$316.4M2$486.8M3$614.4M3$883.4M3
Net income−$42.6M4−$47.9M5$18.8M6−$18.5M6$78.3M6
Operating cash flow$3.32M7−$31.2M8$119M9$64M9$185.2M9
Capital expenditure$2.56M10$8.88M11$8.87M12$16.2M12$13.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$765,0007−$40.1M8$110.1M9$47.8M9$171.4M9
Total debt$287.4M13$286.5M14$285.7M15$318.3M16$309.1M16
Cash & equivalents$100.3M17$48.2M18$221.1M18$144.9M18$285.6M18
Diluted shares12.6M16.3M18.2M19.3M21.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$254.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$36.9
Free cash flow it threw off
$80.74
Debt you’d be carrying
$145.61

10 shares is a claim on $254.72 of net worth that earned you $36.9 and generated $80.74 of cash last year, against $145.61 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 -7%FY22 -5%FY23 11%FY24 2%FY25 19%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+69% shares · 5y

Share count is up 69% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $167.98 and $308.2 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$308.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$110.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$167.98
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$110.1M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$42.38
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $167.98
The three cases
Bear0.0%$72.99
Base20.0%$167.98
Bull20.0%$167.98

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001023024-24-000026 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001023024-25-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001023024-26-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001023024-24-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001023024-25-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001023024-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001023024-24-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001023024-25-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001023024-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001023024-24-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001023024-25-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001023024-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001023024-23-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001023024-24-000026 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001023024-25-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001023024-26-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001023024-25-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001023024-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)