MeritValue

ALLSTATE CORP

ALLdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

ALLSTATE CORP earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 11% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $62.04 and $1,889.85 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$50.6B1$51.4B2$57.1B3$64.1B3$67.7B3
Net income$1.61B4−$1.29B5−$188M6$4.67B6$10.3B6
Operating cash flow$5.12B7$5.12B8$4.23B9$8.93B9$10.1B9
Capital expenditure$345M10$420M11$267M12$210M12$228M12
Free cash flow (derived)$4.77B7$4.7B8$3.96B9$8.72B9$9.88B9
Total debt$7.98B13$7.96B14$7.94B15$8.09B16$7.49B16
Cash & equivalents$763M17$736M18$722M18$704M18$678M18
Diluted shares299.1M271.2M262.5M267.8M267.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,146.01
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$384.95
Free cash flow it threw off
$369.97
Debt you’d be carrying
$280.42

10 shares is a claim on $1,146.01 of net worth that earned you $384.95 and generated $369.97 of cash last year, against $280.42 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 0%FY24 16%FY25 27%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−11% shares · 5y

Share count is down 11% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $62.04 and $1,889.85 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1,889.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$8.72B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1,023.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$8.72B
Earnings Power Value
$62.04
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.61B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$317.52
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1,023.85
The three cases
Bear0.0%$434.84
Base20.0%$1,023.85
Bull20.0%$1,023.85

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000899051-24-000013 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000899051-25-000015 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000899051-26-000031 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000899051-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000899051-25-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000899051-26-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000899051-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000899051-25-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000899051-26-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000899051-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000899051-25-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000899051-26-000031 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000899051-23-000020 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000899051-24-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000899051-25-000015 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000899051-26-000031 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000899051-25-000015 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000899051-26-000031 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)