MeritValue

Alight, Inc. / Delaware

ALITdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

Alight, Inc. / Delaware earns about -12% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 20% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.02 and $20.52 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$2.21B1$2.39B2$2.33B2$2.26B2
Net income−$35M3−$62M4−$345M5−$157M5−$3.1B5
Operating cash flow—$286M6$386M7$252M7$360M7
Capital expenditure—$131M8$140M9$121M9$110M9
Free cash flow (derived)—$155M6$246M7$131M7$250M7
Total debt$5.74B10$5.65B11$5.59B12$4.05B13$4.01B13
Cash & equivalents$372M14$228M15$324M16$343M16$273M16
Diluted shares439.8M458.6M489.5M540.4M527.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$19.79
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$58.7
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.74
Debt you’d be carrying
$76.01

10 shares is a claim on $19.79 of net worth that earned you −$58.7 and generated $4.74 of cash last year, against $76.01 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-12% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -0%FY23 -2%FY24 0%FY25 -48%

It earned about -12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+20% shares · 5y

Share count is up 20% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 30% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.02 and $20.52 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$20.52
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$246M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$8.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$246M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.97%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $8.02
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$0.46
Base20.0%$8.02
Bull20.0%$8.02

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001809104-25-000062 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011108 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022978 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001809104-25-000062 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011108 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001809104-25-000062 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011108 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001809104-25-000062 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011108 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005480 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022978 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001809104-25-000062 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011108 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022978 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001809104-25-000062 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011108 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)