MeritValue

ALCON INC

ALCdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

ALCON INC earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $20.62 and $188.24 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$8.29B1$8.72B2$9.46B3$9.91B3$10.4B3
Net income$376M4$335M5$974M6$1.02B6$980M6
Operating cash flow$1.35B7$1.22B8$1.39B9$2.08B9$2.27B9
Capital expenditure$700M10$636M11$658M12$473M12$543M12
Free cash flow (derived)$645M7$581M8$730M9$1.6B9$1.73B9
Total debt$4.08B13$4.65B14$4.74B15$4.64B16$4.74B16
Cash & equivalents$1.58B17$980M18$1.09B18$1.68B18$1.53B18
Diluted shares490.1M490.1M493.2M494.6M487.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$452.05
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$20.11
Free cash flow it threw off
$35.45
Debt you’d be carrying
$97.18

10 shares is a claim on $452.05 of net worth that earned you $20.11 and generated $35.45 of cash last year, against $97.18 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 2%FY23 4%FY24 5%FY25 4%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 16% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $20.62 and $188.24 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$188.24
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.6B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$100.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.6B
Earnings Power Value
$20.62
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$974M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$44.88
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.97%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $100.02
The three cases
Bear0.0%$40.15
Base20.0%$100.02
Bull20.0%$100.02

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001167379-24-000008 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001167379-25-000008 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001167379-26-000014 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001167379-24-000008 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001167379-25-000008 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001167379-26-000014 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001167379-24-000008 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001167379-25-000008 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001167379-26-000014 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001167379-24-000008 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001167379-25-000008 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001167379-26-000014 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001167379-23-000011 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001167379-24-000008 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001167379-25-000008 (Borrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001167379-26-000014 (Borrowings)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001167379-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001167379-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalents)