MeritValue

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

AJGdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$8.21B1$8.55B2$10.1B3$11.6B3$13.9B3
Net income$906.8M4$1.11B5$970M6$1.46B6$1.49B6
Operating cash flow$1.39B7$1.39B8$2.03B9$2.58B9$1.93B9
Capital expenditure$128.6M10$182.7M11$194M12$142M12$145M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.26B7$1.21B8$1.84B9$2.44B9$1.79B9
Total debt$6.08B13$5.89B14$7.7B15$13B16$25.6B16
Cash & equivalents$402.6M17$738.4M18$971M19$15B19$1.4B19
Diluted shares202.7M210.3M214.9M220.5M256.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
You’d own
0.0000039%
of the whole company
Your share of last year’s profit
$58.34
Your share of its debt
$1,000.27
Your share of free cash flow
$69.7
iii. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$171.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.5%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth13.3%
  • fcfBase$1.84B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$89.72
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.5%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth13.3%
  • fcfBase$1.84B
Earnings Power Value
$45.84
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.5%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.11B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$108.45
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

iv. The price question — last, on purpose
What does today’s price assume?
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years13.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.78%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $89.72

Default growth 13.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-013370 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021775 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008662 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-013370 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021775 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008662 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-013370 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021775 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008662 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-013370 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021775 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008662 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-002456 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-013370 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021775 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008662 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-002456 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-013370 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008662 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)