MeritValue

AIRO Group Holdings, Inc.

AIROdata completeness 100%2 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

AIRO Group Holdings, Inc. earns about -2% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 44% over 2 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$86.9M1$90.9M1
Net income−$38.7M2−$4.1M2
Operating cash flow$21.5M3−$32.4M3
Capital expenditure$789,0004$3.07M4
Free cash flow (derived)$20.7M3−$35.5M3
Total debt$34.7M5$4.54M5
Cash & equivalents$20.9M6$74.6M6
Diluted shares16,38723,678

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$312,185.15
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1,733.25
Free cash flow it threw off
−$14,995.35
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,917.81

10 shares is a claim on $312,185.15 of net worth that earned you −$1,733.25 and generated −$14,995.35 of cash last year, against $1,917.81 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-2% avg · 2y
FY24 -4%FY25 1%

It earned an average -2% on invested capital over 2 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+44% shares · 2y

Share count is up 44% over 2 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 87% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
only 2 years of net income (need ≥3)
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014116 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014116 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014116 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014116 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014116 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014116 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)