MeritValue

ALBANY INTERNATIONAL CORP /DE/

AINdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'

The thesis, from the filings

ALBANY INTERNATIONAL CORP /DE/ earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.44 and $33.25 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$929.2M1$1.03B2$1.15B3$1.23B3$1.18B3
Net income$118.5M4$95.8M5$111.1M6$87.6M6−$57.3M6
Operating cash flow$217.5M7$128.2M8$148.1M9$218.4M9$152.5M9
Capital expenditure$52.8M10$93.7M11$83.6M12$80.2M12$69.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$164.7M7$34.5M8$64.5M9$138.2M9$82.6M9
Total debt$700M13$878M14$913.8M15$637.1M16$911.3M16
Cash & equivalents$302M17$291.8M18$173.4M19$115.3M20$112.4M20
Diluted shares32.5M31.5M31.3M31.3M29.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$245.62
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$19.39
Free cash flow it threw off
$27.95
Debt you’d be carrying
$308.23

10 shares is a claim on $245.62 of net worth that earned you −$19.39 and generated $27.95 of cash last year, against $308.23 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 8%FY23 7%FY24 6%FY25 -3%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 30% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.44 and $33.25 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$9.44
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$82.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$82.6M
Earnings Power Value
$33.25
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$95.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.39
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.39
Base0.0%$12.39
Bull5.0%$21.91

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000819793-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000819793-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012906 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000819793-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000819793-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012906 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000819793-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000819793-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012906 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000819793-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000819793-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012906 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000819793-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000819793-24-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000819793-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012906 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000819793-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000819793-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000819793-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012906 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)