AIFU Inc.
AIFUdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'
AIFU Inc. earns about -58% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 99% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.86 and $40.23 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $513.3M1 | $403.3M2 | $450.5M3 | $247.8M4 | $79.6M5 |
| Net income | $40.8M6 | $14.5M7 | $39.5M8 | $62.3M9 | −$325.4M10 |
| Operating cash flow | $19.8M11 | $20M12 | $14.3M13 | $19.6M14 | −$2.33M15 |
| Capital expenditure | $4.83M16 | $11.3M17 | $1.83M18 | $1.16M19 | $477,00020 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $15M11 | $8.7M12 | $12.5M13 | $18.4M14 | −$2.8M15 |
| Total debt | — | $5.17M21 | $23.1M22 | $18.5M23 | $8.01M24 |
| Cash & equivalents | $88.6M25 | $82.3M26 | $73.5M27 | $26.3M28 | $4.45M29 |
| Diluted shares | 1.07B | 1.07B | 2.7M | 2.7M | 10.1M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $67.53 of net worth that earned you −$321.11 and generated −$2.77 of cash last year, against $7.9 of debt.
It earned about -58% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 99% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 55% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.86 and $40.23 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$12.5M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$12.5M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$39.5M
- growthAssumed0.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $17.18 |
| Base | 0.0% | $17.18 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $21.42 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-022703 (Revenues)
- 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-042007 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037144 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035604 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048631 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-022703 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-042007 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037144 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035604 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048631 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-022703 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-042007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037144 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035604 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048631 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-022703 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-042007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037144 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035604 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048631 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-042007 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037144 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035604 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048631 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-022703 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-042007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037144 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035604 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048631 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)