MeritValue

AGM GROUP HOLDINGS, INC.

AGMHdata completeness 75%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

AGM GROUP HOLDINGS, INC. earns about 26% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 11% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.33 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$53,3051$36.7M2$203.1M3$68.8M3$32M3
Net income−$1.07M4$3.55M5$11.5M6−$7.44M6$3.12M6
Operating cash flow−$1.65M7−$1.85M8−$17.3M9−$1.69M9$7.11M9
Capital expenditure$81010$339,65711$282,30811$1,05012—
Free cash flow (derived)−$1.65M7−$2.19M8−$17.6M9−$1.69M9—
Total debt—$1.57M13———
Cash & equivalents$664,60514$18.4M14$4.07M15$1.55M16$1.17M16
Diluted shares21.8M21.5M24.3M24.3M24.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$9.01
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.29
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $9.01 of net worth that earned you $1.29 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
26% avg · 5y
FY20 -27%FY21 43%FY22 33%FY23 64%FY24 16%

It earned an average 26% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+11% shares · 5y

Share count is up 11% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$1.33
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.12M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$1.62
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-085777 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-053853 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-042324 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-085777 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-053853 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-042324 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-085777 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-053853 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-042324 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-085777 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-053853 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-042324 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-085777 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-085777 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-053853 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-042324 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)