MeritValue

AGM GROUP HOLDINGS, INC.

AGMHdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

AGM GROUP HOLDINGS, INC. earns about 32% on invested capital, and has bought back 92% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $18.16 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$36.7M1$203.1M2$68.8M3$32M3$30.6M3
Net income$3.55M4$11.5M5−$7.44M6$3.12M6$561,6306
Operating cash flow−$1.85M7−$17.3M8−$1.69M9$7.11M9−$4.08M9
Capital expenditure$339,65710$282,30810$1,05011$011$011
Free cash flow (derived)−$2.19M7−$17.6M8−$1.69M9$7.11M9−$4.08M9
Total debt$1.57M12————
Cash & equivalents$18.4M13$4.07M14$1.55M15$1.17M16$325,33816
Diluted shares21.5M24.3M485,058485,0581.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$223.55
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.21
Free cash flow it threw off
−$23.27
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $223.55 of net worth that earned you $3.21 and generated −$23.27 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
32% avg · 5y
FY21 43%FY22 33%FY23 64%FY24 16%FY25 4%

It earned an average 32% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−92% shares · 5y

Share count is down 92% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$18.16
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.12M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$12.69
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-053853 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-042324 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185185-26-003323 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-053853 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-042324 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185185-26-003323 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-053853 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-042324 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185185-26-003323 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-053853 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185185-26-003323 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-085777 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-085777 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-053853 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-042324 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001185185-26-003323 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)