MeritValue

ALAMOS GOLD INC

AGIdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'depreciationAmortization'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

ALAMOS GOLD INC earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 7% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.14 and $35.03 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$823.6M1$821.2M2$1.02B3$1.35B4$1.81B4
Net income−$66.7M5$37.1M6$210M7$284.3M8$885.8M8
Operating cash flow$356.5M9$298.5M10$472.7M11$661.1M12$795.3M12
Capital expenditure$348.6M13$313.7M14$348.9M15$417.6M16$507.1M16
Free cash flow (derived)$7.9M9−$15.2M10$123.8M11$243.5M12$288.2M12
Total debt——$017$250M17$200M17
Cash & equivalents$172.5M18$129.8M19$224.8M20$327.2M20$623.1M20
Diluted shares392.6M392.2M397.0M420.4M419.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$105.89
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$21.1
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.86
Debt you’d be carrying
$4.76

10 shares is a claim on $105.89 of net worth that earned you $21.1 and generated $6.86 of cash last year, against $4.76 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 0%FY22 2%FY23 8%FY24 8%FY25 22%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+7% shares · 5y

Share count is up 7% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.14 and $35.03 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$35.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$243.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$19.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$243.5M
Earnings Power Value
$5.14
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$210M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$22.37
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $19.65
The three cases
Bear0.0%$9.18
Base20.0%$19.65
Bull20.0%$19.65

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178819-23-000029 (Revenue)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178819-24-000028 (Revenue)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178819-25-000031 (Revenue)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001178819-26-000048 (Revenue)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178819-23-000029 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178819-24-000028 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178819-25-000031 (ProfitLoss)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001178819-26-000048 (ProfitLoss)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178819-23-000029 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178819-24-000028 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178819-25-000031 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001178819-26-000048 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178819-23-000029 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178819-24-000028 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178819-25-000031 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  16. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001178819-26-000048 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  17. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178819-26-000048 (Borrowings)
  18. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178819-24-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  19. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178819-25-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  20. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178819-26-000048 (CashAndCashEquivalents)