MeritValue

ADMA BIOLOGICS, INC.

ADMAdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

ADMA BIOLOGICS, INC. earns about 0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 75% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.77 and $1.94 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$80.9M1$154.1M2$258.2M3$426.5M3$510.2M3
Net income−$71.6M4−$65.9M5−$28.2M6$197.7M6$146.9M6
Operating cash flow−$112.4M7−$59.5M8$8.8M9$118.7M9$50.4M9
Capital expenditure$13.5M10$13.9M11$4.77M12$8.23M12$22.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$125.9M7−$73.4M8$4.03M9$110.4M9$27.8M9
Total debt———$144.7M13$144.3M13
Cash & equivalents$51.1M14$86.5M15$51.4M16$103.1M17$87.6M17
Diluted shares139.6M197.9M224.0M243.3M244.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$19.49
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.14
Debt you’d be carrying
$5.89

10 shares is a claim on $19.49 of net worth that earned you $6 and generated $1.14 of cash last year, against $5.89 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
0% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -56%FY23 -3%FY24 32%FY25 28%

It earned about 0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+75% shares · 5y

Share count is up 75% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.77 and $1.94 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1.94
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$27.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1.77
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$27.8M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$5.2
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.97%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1.77
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.38
Base5.0%$1.77
Bull10.0%$2.24

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-010147 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-009257 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-006815 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-010147 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-009257 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-006815 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-010147 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-009257 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-006815 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-010147 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-009257 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-006815 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-006815 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-013467 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-010147 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-009257 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-006815 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)