MeritValue

ADIAL PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.

ADILdata completeness 63%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

ADIAL PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. earns about -309% on equity, and has bought back 96% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$19.4M1−$12.7M2−$5.12M3−$13.2M4−$7.98M4
Operating cash flow−$11.9M5−$11.2M6−$6.81M7−$6.92M8−$6.49M8
Capital expenditure$64,6059————
Free cash flow (derived)−$12M5————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$6.06M10$4M11$2.83M12$3.75M13$5.88M13
Diluted shares18.6M1.0M1.4M194,059668,630

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$78.91
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$119.31
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $78.91 of net worth that earned you −$119.31 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-309% avg · 5y
FY21 -554%FY22 -389%FY23 -125%FY24 -324%FY25 -151%

It earned an average -309% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−96% shares · 5y

Share count is down 96% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-024719 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028701 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-019771 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-024175 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-024719 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028701 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-019771 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-024175 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-024719 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-024719 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028701 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-019771 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-024175 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)