MeritValue

ADC Therapeutics SA

ADCTdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ADC Therapeutics SA earns about -174% on equity, but has diluted owners by 65% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$33.9M1$74.9M2$69.1M2$70.8M3$81.4M3
Net income−$230M4−$157.1M5−$240.1M6−$157.8M7−$142.6M7
Operating cash flow−$233.4M8−$138.3M9−$118.7M10−$123.8M11−$141.2M11
Capital expenditure$3.43M12$687,00013$3.22M14$867,00015$264,00015
Free cash flow (derived)−$236.8M8−$139M9−$121.9M10−$124.7M11−$141.4M11
Total debt———$016$3M16
Cash & equivalents$466.5M17$326.4M18$278.6M19$250.9M20$261.3M20
Diluted shares76.8M78.2M81.7M97.2M127.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$14.62
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$11.22
Free cash flow it threw off
−$11.13
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.24

10 shares is a claim on −$14.62 of net worth that earned you −$11.22 and generated −$11.13 of cash last year, against $0.24 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-174% avg · 5y
FY21 -149%FY22 -198%FY23 —FY24 —FY25 —

It earned an average -174% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+65% shares · 5y

Share count is up 65% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-008056 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010843 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016491 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-008056 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010843 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015131 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016491 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-008056 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010843 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015131 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016491 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-008056 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010843 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015131 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016491 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016491 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010843 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010843 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015131 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016491 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)