MeritValue

Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc.

AAWHdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 36% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.74 and $2.1 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$332.4M1$405.9M2$518.6M3$561.6M3$500.6M3
Net income−$122.7M4−$80.9M4−$48.2M5−$85M5−$118.2M5
Operating cash flow−$41.7M6−$38.4M7$75.3M8$73.3M8$38.1M8
Capital expenditure$88.4M9$81.6M10$24.2M11$22.5M11$26M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$130.2M6−$120M7$51.1M8$50.8M8$12M8
Total debt$258.8M12——$595.1M13$621M13
Cash & equivalents$155.5M14$74.1M15$72.5M16$88.3M17$85.7M17
Diluted shares149.4M183.4M199.2M212.4M203.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$2.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.81
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.59
Debt you’d be carrying
$30.52

10 shares is a claim on −$2.33 of net worth that earned you −$5.81 and generated $0.59 of cash last year, against $30.52 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 -5%FY22 -6%FY23 25%FY24 1%FY25 -3%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+36% shares · 5y

Share count is up 36% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 140% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.74 and $2.1 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$50.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1.74
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$50.8M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1.74
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.89
Base5.0%$1.74
Bull10.0%$2.75

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010940 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012668 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017374 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-008136 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017374 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010940 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012668 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017374 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010940 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012668 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017374 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-22-005776 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017374 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-008136 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010940 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012668 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017374 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)