MeritValue

Allied Gold Corp

AAUCdata completeness 100%2 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Allied Gold Corp earns about 76% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 39% over 2 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$730.4M1$1.33B1
Net income−$115.6M2−$51.8M2
Operating cash flow$110.8M3$514M3
Capital expenditure$179.2M4$408.1M4
Free cash flow (derived)−$68.4M3$105.8M3
Total debt$96.4M5$154.3M5
Cash & equivalents$225M6$479.8M6
Diluted shares89.7M124.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$32.68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.16
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.49
Debt you’d be carrying
$12.37

10 shares is a claim on $32.68 of net worth that earned you −$4.16 and generated $8.49 of cash last year, against $12.37 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
76% avg · 2y
FY24 1%FY25 150%

It earned an average 76% on invested capital over 2 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+39% shares · 2y

Share count is up 39% over 2 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 60% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
only 2 years of net income (need ≥3)
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022512 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022512 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022512 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022512 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022512 (Borrowings)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022512 (CashAndCashEquivalents)