MeritValue

AUTOSCOPE TECHNOLOGIES CORP

AATCdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

AUTOSCOPE TECHNOLOGIES CORP earns about 21% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.98 and $12.17 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2017FY 2018FY 2019FY 2020FY 2021
Revenue$14.5M1$14.6M2$14.7M3$13.2M4$13.2M4
Net income$2.08M5$1.86M6$7M7$1.06M8$2.3M8
Operating cash flow$2.95M9$1.66M10$2.25M11$2.56M12$2.56M12
Capital expenditure$300,00013$194,00014$254,00015$129,00016$2.09M16
Free cash flow (derived)$2.65M9$1.47M10$2M11$2.43M12$475,00012
Total debt——$017$923,00018$1.73M18
Cash & equivalents$3.19M19$4.24M20$5.12M21$8.61M21$8.23M21
Diluted shares5.1M5.2M5.3M5.3M5.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$36.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.28
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.89
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.23

10 shares is a claim on $36.94 of net worth that earned you $4.28 and generated $0.89 of cash last year, against $3.23 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
21% avg · 5y
FY17 38%FY18 29%FY19 14%FY20 5%FY21 17%

It earned about 21% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.98 and $12.17 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$12.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth10.8%
  • fcfBase$2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$9.52
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth10.8%
  • fcfBase$2M
Earnings Power Value
$3.98
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.08M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$5.97
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years10.8%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $9.52
The three cases
Bear0.0%$6.47
Base10.8%$9.52
Bull15.8%$11.37

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 10.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0000897101-19-000222 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0000897101-20-000148 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0000897101-21-000169 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000897101-22-000298 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0000897101-19-000222 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0000897101-20-000148 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0000897101-21-000169 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000897101-22-000298 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0000897101-19-000222 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0000897101-20-000148 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0000897101-21-000169 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000897101-22-000298 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0000897101-19-000222 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0000897101-20-000148 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0000897101-21-000169 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000897101-22-000298 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0000897101-21-000169 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000897101-22-000298 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0000897101-20-000148 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0000897101-21-000169 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0000897101-22-000298 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)