MeritValue

American Airlines Group Inc.

AALdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'

The thesis, from the filings

American Airlines Group Inc. earns about 3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.98 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$29.9B1$49B2$52.8B3$54.2B3$54.6B3
Net income−$1.99B4$127M5$822M6$846M6$111M6
Operating cash flow$704M7$2.17B8$3.8B9$3.98B9$3.1B9
Capital expenditure$208M10$2.55B11$2.6B12$2.68B12$3.78B12
Free cash flow (derived)$496M7−$373M8$1.21B9$1.3B9−$680M9
Total debt$37.3B13$34.9B14$32.4B15$29.8B16$28.3B16
Cash & equivalents$408M17$586M18$681M18$902M18$1.06B18
Diluted shares644.0M655.1M719.7M721.3M661.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$56.38
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.68
Free cash flow it threw off
−$10.29
Debt you’d be carrying
$427.8

10 shares is a claim on −$56.38 of net worth that earned you $1.68 and generated −$10.29 of cash last year, against $427.8 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 -2%FY22 5%FY23 9%FY24 3%FY25 0%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 24% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.21B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.21B
Earnings Power Value
$1.98
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$127M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000006201-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000006201-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000006201-26-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000006201-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000006201-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000006201-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000006201-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000006201-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000006201-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000006201-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000006201-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000006201-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000006201-23-000018 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000006201-24-000010 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000006201-25-000010 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000006201-26-000014 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000006201-25-000010 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000006201-26-000014 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)